Welcome… In the forum you will find, potential trade setups, trading journals, and ideas for systems. I post every possible trade setup I see, along with pictures and explanations. I have also posted every trade I have taken since I started, creating an absolutely complete trade history and a huge source of information for anyone who is interested. Feel free to comment or post your own trades
…SEE YOU IN THE FORUMS
The site has been broken for a few days unbeknownst to me. Every internal link, except the forum led to a 404 not found error. It slipped past me because I never really have the need to click on internal links day-to-day. The drop in traffic, however, did alert me that something was happening.
As of now, everything is running smoothly and should be fixed for good. Let me know via the contact page if anything seems to be broken.
This pair looks to be setup for a little pullback, and although it may not be a very strong one, you never know when the next multi-month long trend is going to start.
I have seen trends start from bars just like this in the past. Follow the progress and see if a trade was ever triggered in this forum post!
The Australian Dollar is looking pretty weak across the board. The strong bearish move from a few days ago (10-2-12) was caused by the central bank cutting interest rates sooner than they were expected to make an announcement.
Looking at a few different pairs of AUD, it looks to me like the AUDUSD would be in the best spot for a short because of where price currently stands with two moving averages right above to works as resistance.
You can read more about my thinking behind this in the forum post here…
Crude oil has come down sharply from its highs a few weeks ago. I have been following crude futures waiting for a short entry since 8-17-12. You can view my post and thoughts about it in the forums, here. I would not recommend entering short right now if you have not already, but it was definitely a good call and price action setup.
It wasn’t a perfect bearish price action setup, but the range of the bearish bar in the rectangle looks like it would fall in the upper end of the distribution of ranges. It is one of the larger, if not the largest of the preceding bars from the week or two right before it. On the charts in the forum there was also pictured some long standing MACD divergence. Check out the forums for the chance to see more setups like this in the future.
“Why?” should be asked by every trader who comes across a new method. Why trade this way? How is it better than other methods? Does it have any disadvantages? I will attempt to answer all of these questions relating to price action trading.
First of all, price action should be clearly understood ( Wikipedia – Price Action ) as studying what the movement of price can tell us about what is happening in the real world.
1. Why Trade This Way?
This is the best question to ask about any method, and should be the first. Price action offers insight into how price is currently moving. How many times have you seen a spot where support or resistance has held before, and decided to trade there only to see price blow right through and move against you? That would be considered touch trading, which is very dangerous and hard to do in my opinion. Think of support and resistance more as just points of interest instead of places where price will turn.
If you look at things this way, you will realize that you have to analyze the price action before entering into a trade. Maybe price action is telling you that price is falling at an increasing rate from the area of resistance, or maybe it is telling you that it is speeding up and breaking through to the other side. Whatever the case, you need to look at how price is interacting with the areas of interest (support and resistance or whatever else)
2. How is it better than other methods?
Other methods just take an area of interest and say trade when price gets to this area, but how are you supposed to know which direction. Sure it has fallen from there before, but today is a new day, and that past area is just history. Everyone has heard that past performance does not indicate future results, yet if you practice touch trading, then you are ignoring that piece of information and entering dangerous territory. Price action trading tells you “Ok, this is an area of interest AND price has just indicated that it does want to move in the given direction.” The and is the important part, without it, there is not much to trade on.
3. Does it have any disadvantages?
Nothing is perfect, there will be flaws in every methodology. The main disadvantages of price action are that you may miss out on some possible moves because it may be too late. In waiting for price to give an indication that it wants to fall, you may miss out on the short, and not be able to get in because it fell too far too fast or because there is not enough room before another point of interest where price will have to make a decision. Overall though I find that the trades I miss are not usually A+ setups to begin with. Waiting for the good trades with confirming price action takes a lot of patience, but in my experience it yields some pretty high “at least breakeven” probability trades when coupled with defensive trading techniques.